Who is the Loser: Biden? Trump? Michelle?
too soon to tell
There are a lot of pieces out this week saying that Trump is a sure loser in 2024. Mainly because he’s an unguided missile and suburban women hate him.
Well, yes, maybe, probably, if the election were held today. Bu suppose we are in a nasty recession by this time next year, and nice suburban women are telling each other that “I can’t believe that Biden…” Then what? Women may say that they really don’t like pushy aggressive men, and they probably do, except when they are feeling in need of protection.
Whatabout Biden? The Narrative did a good job of hiding him in 2020. And they sure did a bang-up job hiding the Hunter Biden laptop under a bushel. But my guess is that the average voter is going to be feeling pretty frightened and upset by election day in 2024. And whatabout that ancient question: “are you better off than four years ago?” The fact is that in today’s salary and debt economy things turn dark pretty rapidly for the average wage-earners, because the basic assumption underlying their lives is that things will go on as before. They have no downside protection. Ordinary people get angry in inflation or deflation or recession, because most people can’t protect themselves from economic problems. See, inflation and deflation and recession are all about the government screwing up the economy. Inflation results from government spending money on a war or on its supporters; deflation and/or recession result from the government trying to right the ship after a bout of inflation.
And Michelle Obama? I read a couple of folks proposing that a Michelle candidacy could make women voters swoon. Maybe so: the First Black Woman President! OMG! But I suspect that voters won’t be in a swooning mood in 2024. And there is the fact that Michelle doesn’t really like politics and isn’t really driven to be president. Fact is that when Obama ran for president in 2008 the timing was perfect. It was time for a change after two Bush GOP terms, the economy was going south, so time for a change. And wow: the First Black President!
But basically my view is that all these assumptions and predictions assume that it will be more or less business as usual in 2024. My guess is that it will not be business as usual. My guess is that, due to inflation, recession, Biden failure, voters will be looking for a Strong Leader in 2024. What will that look like? I think it is far too soon to predict. But I do make this prediction: things will be bad enough that Dems plus the media defending the Narrative ain’t gonna do the job of getting the Uniparty State over the finish line.