Trump's Mideast Ceasefire
what does it all mean
If you’re Jewish I can understand you feeling that, with the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, nothing has been resolved.
But I have to say that Israel has accomplished a remarkable strategic gain since the Hamas attacks of 10//7.
On the day before 10/7 Iran had proxies all over the Middle East making trouble for Israel — and for the Sunni states — but now things are different.
Hamas has been remarkably degraded, and Hamas as a regime is finished.
Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria has been remarkably defanged.
The Iran-friendly Assad regime in Syrias has been replaced with a Sunni-facing regime.
And the Houthis? I suspect that they are due for a downgrade. If nothing else, I am sure that the Saudis don’t like having Houthis messing around on Saudi-adjacent land.
And now, after a 12-day war in which, clearly, Israel profoundly damaged the Iran regime, President Trump had the courage to bunker-bust Iran’s nuclear operations.
I think that Trump and our USAF bomber boys (and one girl) executed a precision operation to remind the world that the US is not quite degraded to irrelevance, and that you don’t want to mess with the US on Trump’s watch. And maybe not on JD Vance’s watch either.
It is a conceit of mine that I know, and have read, and understand enough about the world to make significant judgements about world events. And what I notice is that Trump has been conducting a strategic operation with regard to Israel and the Sunnis. First was his Abraham Accords. Only Saudi Arabia didn’t sign on. Then came 10/7. Here’s what Google Search AI says:
The events of October 7, 2023, significantly impacted the potential for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords. While serious discussions regarding normalized ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia had been underway since the Abraham Accords were announced in 2020, the momentum for a deal was derailed by the Israel-Hamas War that erupted after Hamas's attack on October 7.
But then Trump 2.0 visited the Saudis and Qatar in mid May 2025. I was shocked by the positive embrace by the Saudis, and I have this image of MBS watching and appreciating Trump’s speech. And what was Elon Musk doing in the frame with MBS?
My take on Trump’s trip was that the Saudis and the rest of the Persian Gulf Sunni states have come to the notion that power and prestige in the modern world belongs to the states that excel in tech and trade. And that, by the way, as the Brits say, Iran has lost the plot.
And that makes me wonder about Russia and China. If I were a high status Russian I would be wondering what Russia was doing degrading its wealth in Ukraine right now. And if I were a high-status Chinese I would be wondering what was the point of throwing money away on the Belt and Road Initiative. I know that China has always operated a tributary system, going back centuries, but right now? You tell me, President Xi. But wait! They say that President Xi is facing political headwinds.
In other words, I wonder if the world is changing, from the ideological world of the educated class that has dominated the world for the last two centuries and given us murderous and incompetent totalitarian regimes and world wars to a new world dominated by the interests of the ordinary middle class. In this world, perhaps, the top dogs are more interested in tech startups and reusable rockets and Occupy Mars than the faithful observance of the religion of revolution, as in the maxim:
The issue is never the issue; the issue is always the revolution.
Only, I think that the modern educated kidz are really just cosplaying revolution, and they are encouraged and indulged in their cosplaying by their educated-class masters. For reasons.
A lot of people in the best circles like to think of the “volatile, capricious Trump.” Maybe Trump instinctively encourages the global educated class to think that.
But I have to say that Trump seems to have an instinct for getting things done and confounding his opponents in the administrative state.
But I could be wrong.