Yesterday I took a look at the OMB’s Fearless Forecasting on the GDP and inflation front. Hey! No Problem! No recession, and inflation will be down to 2 percent in a couple years!
But today I want to present you with a basic chart on federal spending. It’s the Biden administration forecast on federal spending going out to 2028 now appearing on usgovernmentspending.com.
Yeah. See what I see? A ratchet. We have a spurt of about $2 trillion in federal spending to fight COVID. And now it’s permanent. Now that Joey and the girls have got their hands on more of other peoples’ money, they ain’t gonna give it back. Equity, baby! By the way. The chart just shows federal spending. State and local spending are extra, not included in the bill.
You can see how this works the world over. Right now the noble French President Macron is proposing to raise the French retirement age from 62 to 64! Because reasons. Are you kidding? How dare you, you squirly graduate of les grandes écoles! We French got our rights! What do you think we executed that dumb king Louis and his dumb Austrian queen for! Let them eat cake, my foot! Á la lanterne mes amis!
Here’s a look at US federal spending since the start of the 20th century.
Notice the pattern? We had a nice little WWI and a gusher of federal spending for a couple years. But President Coolidge got to work and cut spending: he used to sit down with his Treasury Secretary of an afternoon and decide what to cut next. Then we had a little market crash, and a thousand banks a year failing every year. So President Roosevelt tripled federal spending. Then World War II, and in the aftermath federal spending had nearly doubled. Now we have a jolly old COVID crisis, and in the aftermath federal spending is ratcheting up another 5 percent of GDP. By the way. The chart just shows federal spending. State and local spending are extra, not included in the bill.
Look, this is not a Democrat or Republican or Commie or Fascist issue. It is just human nature. When your feudal lord blesses you with loot and plunder he has captured on his righteous war he’d better not ever think of taking it away from you. Because if he does we peasants and commoners will turn on him in a New York minute.
Our Democratic friends know how to play this game in spades. That’s why they are always accusing Republicans of cutting Social Security and Medicare. How dare they!
Guy: They’d better not take by Social Security: I paid for it.
Gal: They’d better not take away mom’s Medicare. She earned it.
(Yes, in 50 years little Greta will be in the streets shouting “How Dare You” about more important things than fake climate change).
You see, I Have a Dream. That one fine day American citizens will respond to a proposal to spend more money with an insult, and a demand that the president put it where the sun don’t shine. And American citizens will line up to offer their pet program for the chopping block.
I know: in your dreams. But dreaming is still legal. If only just.