The Modern Birth Dearth
and the deeper philosophical question
Experts agree that the current low birth rates in the developed world are a problem. Almost all developed countries have a birth rate less than the population replacement level of 2.1 children per couple.
South Korea is the worst, with a current birth rate of about 0.75 children per couple. If you ask Grok it mumbles about:
High cost of housing and children
Work culture
Gender inequality and patriarchy
Job market pressures
Tiger moms directing kids’ eduction
But I suspect that the problem is the hegemonic dominance of politics and government in modern society. In other words, the educated class. But what do I know?
I’m reading The Origin of Politics by Nicholas Wade. It’s the fourth book in which Wade — for 30 years a New York Times writer and editor — has gone against the narrative.
The Origin of Politics is not so much about political origins as a discussion of the conflict between politics and culture, understanding culture as a combination of biological programming and social evolution.
However, there is a school of “social constructionism” in lefty social science circles that argues that “all human behaviors are cultural” and forget genetics.
Yes, and Wade got into a lot of trouble over A Troublesome Inheritance where he argued for evolution and genes and got pushback from the scientists.
Mind you, back in 1982 Wade wrote with William J. Broad the book Betrayers of the Truth in which they discuss historical and contemporary examples of scientific fraud.
But what struck me in The Origin of Politics was this statement about the left:
The idea of inherited human nature is also opposed by many on the left. A fixed set of behavior would stand in the way of their ideas for reforming society. Marx and Engels proposed to abolish the family as the basic unit of all human societies. Their followers have sought to eliminate the hated patriarchy of the father and to divert people’s allegience form the family to the state.
You can see the point of the dustup. The whole point of the left is that “we” are going to execute a “fundamental transformation” of society — in the memorable words of President Barack Obama. What is stopping us is injustice and inequality. And the family, and patriarchy, and capitalism, and billionaires, and racist-sexist-homophobes.
But if human society is basically formed as a net consequence of genes and social and cultural evolution then there is very little for lefty politicians and activists — and government funded scientists — to do. And that must be wrong!
Do you see how this explains our lefty friends? How it explains the whole gender thing? How it explains the lefty feminist movement?
If you have Plans for society you are not going to believe that society evolves, and that some adaptations will work, and some adaptations will not work. You fill the streets with devoted activists and demand Change.
Why does one adaptation work and another adaptation not work? Good question. What social change resulted in the South Korean birth-rate of 0.75? Obviously, in the long term it does not matter, because the way things are going there won’t be a South Korea in a century from now.
Is monogamy a good idea? The Romans started it and the Jews and Christians picked it up.
Is contraception a good idea? Abortion? Divorce on demand? Good question.
Is careers for women a good idea? Women in administrative hierarchies a good idea? Good question.
Is normalization of homosexuality and transgenderism a good idea? Good question.
Is capitalism a good idea? Good question.
Is government welfare a good idea? It seems to have destroyed work and marriage in the lower classes.
And on and on. In the present age we are taught that conscious direction of traffic from the educated elite and from scientists is a Good Thing. But is it?
The fact is that humans are born, live and die; families come and go, political entities come and go, empires come and go. Species come and go; genuses come and go. And nobody knows what comes next.
But we sure would like to know, and we sure like to think that we know how the world works. And the solar system, and the galaxy, and the universe.
And yes: is the universe all there is?
Meanwhile what are we going to do about births at less than replacement?