If the IRGC Doesn't Keep Fighting

it's outta here

I don’t know if President Trump rose to Bismarckian levels of strategic brilliance in bombing Iran. Or whether he waded into a quagmire.

Either way, I’d say, the world really doesn’t need Iran with a Bomb. And if the world does need to de-bomb the Iranian regime, then Donald Trump is probably the best guy in the world to do it, because cojones.

But the real question is: what in the world is the Iranian regime up to, with its occasional missiles hitting various states in the Persian Gulf and its occasional drone attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz?

President Trump recently said:

“It’s over. I don’t want to deal with the Iranian regime. They are sick, vicious, violent people. It’s just a waste of time dealing with them. They’re liars.”

But put yourself in the shoes of the current Iranian regime. Right now, I expect, there are various factions in the IRGC and the mullah-cracy fighting over who gets to run the regime.

There is nothing complicated or sophisticated about this. The way you get to establish a regime is either to conquer the old regime in a coup or civil war or win a glorious war against a hated enemy.

The way you get replaced is by losing a war. Ask Jefferson Davis about that.

Problem is that the Iranian regime has had its military capabilities practically destroyed, and is opposed by the global hegemon that can bomb them six ways from Sunday. Any day of the week.

And worse, the bombing of various targets in the Persian Gulf has forced the various Sunni regimes to move closer to Israel and the global hegemon. Probably, with the Abraham Accords, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Bombing makes things worse for the current Iranian regime, whoever and whatever it is.

But the regime cannot really come to a deal with the United States, because whatever deal Mr. Let’s Make a Deal has in mind, it will be a devastating humiliation to the current dominant faction ruling in Iran. No Nukes? No Proxies? Peace in Lebanon? A permanent US presence in the Strait of Hormuz? Fuggedaboudit.

And don’t forget that this all started with riots in Iran in January all about the runaway inflation and devastated economy that the mullahs have visited on Iran.

I’d say the current regime in Iran is between a rock and a hard place. But I expect that it will keep shooting off the odd missiles and attacking the odd ship in the Strait of Hormuz until the day comes when it can’t.

And then the Iranian regime will be replaced by another regime. Whether there will be riots in the streets of Tehran or a civil war between warring factions, or whether the whole thing will go down in a weekend, I have no idea.

I am sure that the current regime in Iran is trying to stick it out till the US midterm elections in November in the hope that the Democrats will win and impeach President Trump and do another Obama peace deal.

Bless their hearts.